Predicting East African spring droughts using Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature indices

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
Andrew Hoell; Shraddhanand Shukla; Ileana Blade Mendoza; Brant Liebmann; Jason B. Roberts; Franklin R. Robertson; Gregory Husak
By: , and 

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Abstract

In southern Ethiopia, Eastern Kenya, and southern Somalia poor boreal spring rains in 1999, 2000, 2004, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2011 contributed to severe food insecurity and high levels of malnutrition. Predicting rainfall deficits in this region on seasonal and decadal time frames can help decision makers support disaster risk reduction while guiding climate-smart adaptation and agricultural development. Building on recent research that links more frequent droughts to a stronger Walker Circulation, warming in the Indo-Pacific warm pool, and an increased western Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, we explore the dominant modes of East African rainfall variability, links between these modes and sea surface temperatures, and a simple index-based monitoring-prediction system suitable for drought early warning.

Additional publication details

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Predicting East African spring droughts using Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperature indices
Series title Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/hessd-11-3111-2014
Volume 11
Year Published 2014
Language English
Publisher EGU
Contributing office(s) Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center
Description 26 p.
First page 3111
Last page 3136
Online Only (Y/N) N
Additional Online Files (Y/N) N