A spatial analysis of population dynamics and climate change in Africa: potential vulnerability hot spots emerge where precipitation declines and demographic pressures coincide

Population and Environment
David López-Carr; Narcisa G. Pricope; Juliann E. Aukema; Marta M. Jankowska; Gregory Husak; Joel Michaelsen;
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Abstract

We present an integrative measure of exposure and sensitivity components of vulnerability to climatic and demographic change for the African continent in order to identify “hot spots” of high potential population vulnerability. Getis-Ord Gi* spatial clustering analyses reveal statistically significant locations of spatio-temporal precipitation decline coinciding with high population density and increase. Statistically significant areas are evident, particularly across central, southern, and eastern Africa. The highly populated Lake Victoria basin emerges as a particularly salient hot spot. People located in the regions highlighted in this analysis suffer exceptionally high exposure to negative climate change impacts (as populations increase on lands with decreasing rainfall). Results may help inform further hot spot mapping and related research on demographic vulnerabilities to climate change. Results may also inform more suitable geographical targeting of policy interventions across the continent.

Additional publication details

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title A spatial analysis of population dynamics and climate change in Africa: potential vulnerability hot spots emerge where precipitation declines and demographic pressures coincide
Series title Population and Environment
DOI 10.1007/s11111-014-0209-0
Volume 35
Issue 3
Year Published 2014
Language English
Publisher Human Sciences Press
Publisher location New York, NY
Contributing office(s) Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center
Description 17 p.
First page 323
Last page 339
Online Only (Y/N) N
Additional Online Files (Y/N) N