A spatial analysis of population dynamics and climate change in Africa: potential vulnerability hot spots emerge where precipitation declines and demographic pressures coincide

David López-Carr; Narcisa G. Pricope; Juliann E. Aukema; Marta M. Jankowska; Christopher C. Funk; Gregory J. Husak; Joel C. Michaelsen

doi:10.1007/s11111-014-0209-0

A spatial analysis of population dynamics and climate change in Africa: potential vulnerability hot spots emerge where precipitation declines and demographic pressures coincide

Population and Environment

David López-Carr; Narcisa G. Pricope; Juliann E. Aukema; Marta M. Jankowska; Gregory Husak; Joel Michaelsen;

By: David López-Carr, Narcisa G. Pricope, Juliann E. Aukema, Marta M. Jankowska, Christopher C. Funk, Gregory J. Husak, and Joel C. Michaelsen

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-014-0209-0

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Abstract

We present an integrative measure of exposure and sensitivity components of vulnerability to climatic and demographic change for the African continent in order to identify “hot spots” of high potential population vulnerability. Getis-Ord Gi* spatial clustering analyses reveal statistically significant locations of spatio-temporal precipitation decline coinciding with high population density and increase. Statistically significant areas are evident, particularly across central, southern, and eastern Africa. The highly populated Lake Victoria basin emerges as a particularly salient hot spot. People located in the regions highlighted in this analysis suffer exceptionally high exposure to negative climate change impacts (as populations increase on lands with decreasing rainfall). Results may help inform further hot spot mapping and related research on demographic vulnerabilities to climate change. Results may also inform more suitable geographical targeting of policy interventions across the continent.

Additional publication details
Publication type	Article
Publication Subtype	Journal Article
Title	A spatial analysis of population dynamics and climate change in Africa: potential vulnerability hot spots emerge where precipitation declines and demographic pressures coincide
Series title	Population and Environment
DOI	10.1007/s11111-014-0209-0
Volume	35
Issue	3
Year Published	2014
Language	English
Publisher	Human Sciences Press
Publisher location	New York, NY
Contributing office(s)	Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center
Description	17 p.
First page	323
Last page	339
Online Only (Y/N)	N
Additional Online Files (Y/N)	N
Google Analytic Metrics	Metrics page