Towards forecasting the retreat of California’s coastal cliffs during the 21st century
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Abstract
In California, sea-level rise during the 21st century threatens to accelerate coastal cliff recession rates. To forecast such changes for managers and policymakers, models must play a key role. In this paper, we extend a ~70-year long dataset of measured historic sea cliff retreat rates in Southern California into the 21st century using a suite of simple analytical and empirical models. Ensemble results suggest that coastal cliff recession rates could increase on average by 0.09-0.22 m yr-1 for a 0.5-1.0 m rise in sea level by 2100, 27-67% faster than historical rates. The basic models used herein will serve as a baseline against which more complex, process-based and statistical (Bayesian) forecasts will be compared. The application of different models, with varying levels of detail, to the same geomorphic problem will provide a comprehensive forecast and address the question of how to reduce model complexity while minimizing uncertainty.
Study Area
| Publication type | Conference Paper |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Conference Paper |
| Title | Towards forecasting the retreat of California’s coastal cliffs during the 21st century |
| DOI | 10.1142/9789814689977_0245 |
| Year Published | 2015 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | World Scientific |
| Contributing office(s) | Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center |
| Description | 12 p. |
| Larger Work Type | Book |
| Larger Work Subtype | Conference publication |
| Larger Work Title | The proceedings of the coastal sediments 2015 |
| Conference Title | Coastal Sediments 2015 |
| Conference Location | San Diego, CA |
| Conference Date | May 11-15, 2015 |
| Country | United States |
| State | California |
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