Prediction of summer maximum and minimum temperature over the central and western United States: The roles of soil moisture and sea surface temperature

Journal of Climate
By: , and 

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Abstract

A statistical model based on canonical correlation analysis (CCA) was used to explore climatic associations and predictability of June–August (JJA) maximum and minimum surface air temperatures (Tmax and Tmin) as well as the frequency of Tmax daily extremes (Tmax90) in the central and western United States (west of 90°W). Explanatory variables are monthly and seasonal Pacific Ocean SST (PSST) and the Climate Division Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) during 1950–2001. Although there is a positive correlation between Tmax and Tmin, the two variables exhibit somewhat different patterns and dynamics. Both exhibit their lowest levels of variability in summer, but that of Tmax is greater than Tmin. The predictability of Tmax is mainly associated with local effects related to previous soil moisture conditions at short range (one month to one season), with PSST providing a secondary influence. Predictability of Tmin is more strongly influenced by large-scale (PSST) patterns, with PDSI acting as a short-range predictive influence. For both predictand variables (Tmax and Tmin), the PDSI influence falls off markedly at time leads beyond a few months, but a PSST influence remains for at least two seasons. The maximum predictive skill for JJA Tmin, Tmax, and Tmax90 is from May PSST and PDSI. Importantly, skills evaluated for various seasons and time leads undergo a seasonal cycle that has maximum levels in summer. At the seasonal time frame, summer Tmax prediction skills are greatest in the Midwest, northern and central California, Arizona, and Utah. Similar results were found for Tmax90. In contrast, Tmin skill is spread over most of the western region, except for clusters of low skill in the northern Midwest and southern Montana, Idaho, and northern Arizona.

Study Area

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Prediction of summer maximum and minimum temperature over the central and western United States: The roles of soil moisture and sea surface temperature
Series title Journal of Climate
DOI 10.1175/JCLI3665.1
Volume 19
Issue 8
Year Published 2006
Language English
Publisher American Meteorological Society
Contributing office(s) San Francisco Bay-Delta, Pacific Regional Director's Office
Description 15 p.
First page 1407
Last page 1421
Country United States
Other Geospatial Western United States
Online Only (Y/N) N
Additional Online Files (Y/N) N
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