Understanding the efficacy of revised watershed management methods is important to mitigating the impacts of urbanization on streamflow. We evaluated the influence of land use change, primarily as urbanization, and stormwater control measures on the relationship between precipitation and stream discharge over an 8-year period for five catchments near Clarksburg, Montgomery County, Maryland, USA. A unit-hydrograph model based on a temporal transfer function was employed to account for and standardize temporal variation in rainfall pattern, and properly apportion rainfall to streamflow at different time lags. From these lagged relationships, we quantified a correction to the precipitation time series to achieve a hydrograph that showed good agreement between precipitation and discharge records. Positive corrections appeared to include precipitation events that were of limited areal extent and therefore not captured by our rain gages. Negative corrections were analysed for potential causal relationships. We used mixed-model statistical techniques to isolate different sources of variance as drivers that mediate the rainfall–runoff dynamic before and after management. Seasonal periodicity mediated rainfall–runoff relationships, and land uses (i.e. agriculture, natural lands, wetlands and stormwater control measures) were statistically significant predictors of precipitation apportionment to stream discharge. Our approach is one way to evaluate actual effectiveness of management efforts in the face of complicating circumstances and could be paired with cost data to understand economic efficiency or life cycle aspects of watershed management. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.