Estimation of river and stream temperature trends under haphazard sampling
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Abstract
Long-term temporal trends in water temperature in rivers and streams are typically estimated under the assumption of evenly-spaced space-time measurements. However, sampling times and dates associated with historical water temperature datasets and some sampling designs may be haphazard. As a result, trends in temperature may be confounded with trends in time or space of sampling which, in turn, may yield biased trend estimators and thus unreliable conclusions. We address this concern using multilevel (hierarchical) linear models, where time effects are allowed to vary randomly by day and date effects by year. We evaluate the proposed approach by Monte Carlo simulations with imbalance, sparse data and confounding by trend in time and date of sampling. Simulation results indicate unbiased trend estimators while results from a case study of temperature data from the Illinois River, USA conform to river thermal assumptions. We also propose a new nonparametric bootstrap inference on multilevel models that allows for a relatively flexible and distribution-free quantification of uncertainties. The proposed multilevel modeling approach may be elaborated to accommodate nonlinearities within days and years when sampling times or dates typically span temperature extremes.
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Estimation of river and stream temperature trends under haphazard sampling |
| Series title | Statistical Methods & Applications |
| DOI | 10.1007/s10260-015-0334-7 |
| Volume | 25 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Year Published | 2015 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Springer-Verlag |
| Publisher location | Heidelberg, Germany |
| Contributing office(s) | Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center |
| Description | 27 p. |
| First page | 89 |
| Last page | 105 |
| Country | United States |
| Other Geospatial | Illinois River |
| Online Only (Y/N) | N |
| Additional Online Files (Y/N) | N |
| Google Analytic Metrics | Metrics page |