Development of a globally applicable model for near real-time prediction of seismically induced landslides

Engineering Geology
By: , and 

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Abstract

Substantial effort has been invested to understand where seismically induced landslides may occur in the future, as they are a costly and frequently fatal threat in mountainous regions. The goal of this work is to develop a statistical model for estimating the spatial distribution of landslides in near real-time around the globe for use in conjunction with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system. This model uses standardized outputs of ground shaking from the USGS ShakeMap Atlas 2.0 to develop an empirical landslide probability model, combining shaking estimates with broadly available landslide susceptibility proxies, i.e., topographic slope, surface geology, and climate parameters. We focus on four earthquakes for which digitally mapped landslide inventories and well-constrainedShakeMaps are available. The resulting database is used to build a predictive model of the probability of landslide occurrence. The landslide database includes the Guatemala (1976), Northridge (1994), Chi-Chi (1999), and Wenchuan (2008) earthquakes. Performance of the regression model is assessed using statistical goodness-of-fit metrics and a qualitative review to determine which combination of the proxies provides both the optimum prediction of landslide-affected areas and minimizes the false alarms in non-landslide zones. Combined with near real-time ShakeMaps, these models can be used to make generalized predictions of whether or not landslides are likely to occur (and if so, where) for earthquakes around the globe, and eventually to inform loss estimates within the framework of the PAGER system.

Additional publication details

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Development of a globally applicable model for near real-time prediction of seismically induced landslides
Series title Engineering Geology
DOI 10.1016/j.enggeo.2014.02.002
Volume 173
Year Published 2014
Language English
Publisher Elsevier
Contributing office(s) Geologic Hazards Science Center
Description 10 p.
First page 54
Last page 65
Online Only (Y/N) N
Additional Online Files (Y/N) N