The nature of earthquake prediction
Links
- The Publications Warehouse does not have links to digital versions of this publication at this time
- Download citation as: RIS | Dublin Core
Abstract
Earthquake prediction is inherently statistical. Although some people continue to think of earthquake prediction as the specification of the time, place, and magnitude of a future earthquake, it has been clear for at least a decade that this is an unrealistic and unreasonable definition. the reality is that earthquake prediction starts from the long-term forecasts of place and magnitude, with very approximate time constraints, and progresses, at least in principle, to a gradual narrowing of the time window as data and understanding permit. Primitive long-term forecasts are clearly possible at this time on a few well-characterized fault systems. Tightly focuses monitoring experiments aimed at short-term prediction are already underway in Parkfield, California, and in the Tokai region in Japan; only time will tell how much progress will be possible.
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | The nature of earthquake prediction |
| Series title | Earthquakes & Volcanoes (USGS) |
| Volume | 22 |
| Issue | 3 |
| Year Published | 1991 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | U.S Geological Survey |
| Description | 3 p. |
| First page | 117 |
| Last page | 119 |
| Online Only (Y/N) | N |
| Additional Online Files (Y/N) | N |
| Google Analytic Metrics | Metrics page |