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Fire risk in San Diego County, California: A weighted Bayesian model approach

California Geographer
By:  and 

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Abstract

Fire risk models are widely utilized to mitigate wildfire hazards, but models are often based on expert opinions of less understood fire-ignition and spread processes. In this study, we used an empirically derived weights-of-evidence model to assess what factors produce fire ignitions east of San Diego, California. We created and validated a dynamic model of fire-ignition risk based on land characteristics and existing fire-ignition history data, and predicted ignition risk for a future urbanization scenario. We then combined our empirical ignition-risk model with a fuzzy fire behavior-risk model developed by wildfire experts to create a hybrid model of overall fire risk. We found that roads influence fire ignitions and that future growth will increase risk in new rural development areas. We conclude that empirically derived risk models and hybrid models offer an alternative method to assess current and future fire risk based on management actions.

Additional publication details

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Fire risk in San Diego County, California: A weighted Bayesian model approach
Series title California Geographer
Volume 47
Year Published 2007
Language English
Publisher California Geographical Society
Contributing office(s) Alaska Science Center
Description 19 p.
First page 42
Last page 60
Online Only (Y/N) N
Additional Online Files (Y/N) N