The Iquique earthquake sequence of April 2014: Bayesian modeling accounting for prediction uncertainty

Geophysical Research Letters
By: , and 

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Abstract

The subduction zone in northern Chile is a well-identified seismic gap that last ruptured in 1877. On 1 April 2014, this region was struck by a large earthquake following a two week long series of foreshocks. This study combines a wide range of observations, including geodetic, tsunami, and seismic data, to produce a reliable kinematic slip model of the Mw=8.1 main shock and a static slip model of the Mw=7.7 aftershock. We use a novel Bayesian modeling approach that accounts for uncertainty in the Green's functions, both static and dynamic, while avoiding nonphysical regularization. The results reveal a sharp slip zone, more compact than previously thought, located downdip of the foreshock sequence and updip of high-frequency sources inferred by back-projection analysis. Both the main shock and the Mw=7.7 aftershock did not rupture to the trench and left most of the seismic gap unbroken, leaving the possibility of a future large earthquake in the region.

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Additional publication details

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title The Iquique earthquake sequence of April 2014: Bayesian modeling accounting for prediction uncertainty
Series title Geophysical Research Letters
DOI 10.1002/2015GL065402
Volume 42
Issue 19
Year Published 2016
Language English
Publisher AGU
Contributing office(s) Earthquake Science Center
Description 9 p.
First page 7949
Last page 7957
Country Chile, Peru
Online Only (Y/N) N
Additional Online Files (Y/N) N
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