The Iquique earthquake sequence of April 2014: Bayesian modeling accounting for prediction uncertainty
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Abstract
The subduction zone in northern Chile is a well-identified seismic gap that last ruptured in 1877. On 1 April 2014, this region was struck by a large earthquake following a two week long series of foreshocks. This study combines a wide range of observations, including geodetic, tsunami, and seismic data, to produce a reliable kinematic slip model of the Mw=8.1 main shock and a static slip model of the Mw=7.7 aftershock. We use a novel Bayesian modeling approach that accounts for uncertainty in the Green's functions, both static and dynamic, while avoiding nonphysical regularization. The results reveal a sharp slip zone, more compact than previously thought, located downdip of the foreshock sequence and updip of high-frequency sources inferred by back-projection analysis. Both the main shock and the Mw=7.7 aftershock did not rupture to the trench and left most of the seismic gap unbroken, leaving the possibility of a future large earthquake in the region.
Study Area
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | The Iquique earthquake sequence of April 2014: Bayesian modeling accounting for prediction uncertainty |
| Series title | Geophysical Research Letters |
| DOI | 10.1002/2015GL065402 |
| Volume | 42 |
| Issue | 19 |
| Year Published | 2016 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | AGU |
| Contributing office(s) | Earthquake Science Center |
| Description | 9 p. |
| First page | 7949 |
| Last page | 7957 |
| Country | Chile, Peru |
| Online Only (Y/N) | N |
| Additional Online Files (Y/N) | N |
| Google Analytic Metrics | Metrics page |