Methods for exploring uncertainty in groundwater management predictions

By: , and 
Edited by: Anthony J. JakemanOlivier BarreteauRandall J. HuntJean-Daniel Rinaudo, and Andrew Ross

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Abstract

Models of groundwater systems help to integrate knowledge about the natural and human system covering different spatial and temporal scales, often from multiple disciplines, in order to address a range of issues of concern to various stakeholders. A model is simply a tool to express what we think we know. Uncertainty, due to lack of knowledge or natural variability, means that there are always alternative models that may need to be considered. This chapter provides an overview of uncertainty in models and in the definition of a problem to model, highlights approaches to communicating and using predictions of uncertain outcomes and summarises commonly used methods to explore uncertainty in groundwater management predictions. It is intended to raise awareness of how alternative models and hence uncertainty can be explored in order to facilitate the integration of these techniques with groundwater management.

Additional publication details

Publication type Book chapter
Publication Subtype Book Chapter
Title Methods for exploring uncertainty in groundwater management predictions
ISBN 978-3-319-23575-2
DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-23576-9_28
Year Published 2016
Language English
Publisher Springer
Contributing office(s) Wisconsin Water Science Center
Description 27 p.
Larger Work Type Book
Larger Work Subtype Monograph
Larger Work Title Integrated groundwater management
First page 711
Last page 737
Online Only (Y/N) N
Additional Online Files (Y/N) N