From points to forecasts: Predicting invasive species habitat suitability in the near term

Diversity
By: , and 

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Abstract

We used near-term climate scenarios for the continental United States, to model 12 invasive plants species. We created three potential habitat suitability models for each species using maximum entropy modeling: (1) current; (2) 2020; and (3) 2035. Area under the curve values for the models ranged from 0.92 to 0.70, with 10 of the 12 being above 0.83 suggesting strong and predictable species-environment matching. Change in area between the current potential habitat and 2035 ranged from a potential habitat loss of about 217,000 km2, to a potential habitat gain of about 133,000 km2.

Additional publication details

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title From points to forecasts: Predicting invasive species habitat suitability in the near term
Series title Diversity
DOI 10.3390/d2050738
Volume 2
Issue 5
Year Published 2010
Language English
Contributing office(s) Fort Collins Science Center
Description 30 p.
First page 738
Last page 767
Country United States
Online Only (Y/N) N
Additional Online Files (Y/N) N