Uncertainty quantification and propagation for projections of extremes in monthly area burned under climate change: A case study in the coastal plain of Georgia, USA

By: , and 
Edited by: Karin L. RileyPeter Webley, and Matthew Thompson

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Abstract

Human‐caused climate change is predicted to affect the frequency of hazard‐linked extremes. Unusually large wildfires are a type of extreme event that is constrained by climate and can be a hazard to society but also an important ecological disturbance. This chapter focuses on changes in the frequency of extreme monthly area burned by wildfires for the end of the 21st century for a wildfire‐prone region in the southeast United States. Predicting changes in area burned is complicated by the large and varied uncertainties in how the climate will change and in the models used to predict those changes. The chapter characterizes and quantifies multiple sources of uncertainty and propagate the expanded prediction intervals of future area burned. It illustrates that while accounting for multiple sources of uncertainty in global change science problems is a difficult task, it will be necessary in order to properly assess the risk of increased exposure to these society‐relevant events.

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Additional publication details

Publication type Book chapter
Publication Subtype Book Chapter
Title Uncertainty quantification and propagation for projections of extremes in monthly area burned under climate change: A case study in the coastal plain of Georgia, USA
Chapter 16
ISBN 978-1-119-02786-7
DOI 10.1002/9781119028116.ch16
Year Published 2016
Language English
Publisher American Geophysical Union
Contributing office(s) Southeast Climate Science Center, National Climate Adaptation Science Center, Core Science Analytics, Synthesis, and Libraries, GAP Analysis Project
Description 12 p.
Larger Work Type Book
Larger Work Subtype Monograph
Larger Work Title Natural hazard uncertainty assessment: Modeling and decision support
First page 245
Last page 256
Country United States
State Georgia
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