Modelling landslide liquefaction, mobility bifurcation and the dynamics of the 2014 Oso disaster

Geotechnique
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Abstract

Some landslides move slowly or intermittently downslope, but others liquefy during the early stages of motion, leading to runaway acceleration and high-speed runout across low-relief terrain. Mechanisms responsible for this disparate behaviour are represented in a two-phase, depth-integrated, landslide dynamics model that melds principles from soil mechanics, granular mechanics and fluid mechanics. The model assumes that gradually increasing pore-water pressure causes slope failure to nucleate at the weakest point on a basal slip surface in a statically balanced mass. Failure then spreads to adjacent regions as a result of momentum exchange. Liquefaction is contingent on pore-pressure feedback that depends on the initial soil state. The importance of this feedback is illustrated by using the model to study the dynamics of a disastrous landslide that occurred near Oso, Washington, USA, on 22 March 2014. Alternative simulations of the event reveal the pronounced effects of a landslide mobility bifurcation that occurs if the initial void ratio of water-saturated soil equals the lithostatic, critical-state void ratio. They also show that the tendency for bifurcation increases as the soil permeability decreases. The bifurcation implies that it can be difficult to discriminate conditions that favour slow landsliding from those that favour liquefaction and long runout.

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Modelling landslide liquefaction, mobility bifurcation and the dynamics of the 2014 Oso disaster
Series title Geotechnique
DOI 10.1680/jgeot.15.LM.004
Volume 66
Issue 3
Year Published 2016
Language English
Publisher Institution of Civil Engineers
Publisher location London
Contributing office(s) Volcano Science Center
Description 13 p.
First page 175
Last page 187
Country United States
State Washington
City Oso
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