Potential carbon emissions dominated by carbon dioxide from thawed permafrost soils

Christina Schädel; Martin K.-F. Bader; Edward A.G. Schuur; Christina Biasi; Rosvel Bracho; Petr Čapek; Sarah De Baets; Kateřina Diáková; Jessica Ernakovich; Cristian Estop-Aragones; David E. Graham; Iain P. Hartley; Colleen M. Iversen; Evan S. Kane; Christian Knoblauch; Massimo Lupascu; Pertti J. Martikainen; Susan M. Natali; Richard J. Norby; Jonathan A. O'Donnell; Taniya Roy Chowdhury; Hana Šantrůčková; Gaius Shaver; Victoria L. Sloan; Claire C. Treat; Merritt R. Turetsky; Mark P. Waldrop; Kimberly P. Wickland

doi:10.1038/nclimate3054

Potential carbon emissions dominated by carbon dioxide from thawed permafrost soils

Nature Climate Change

By: Christina Schädel, Martin K.-F. Bader, Edward A.G. Schuur, Christina Biasi, Rosvel Bracho, Petr Čapek, Sarah De Baets, Kateřina Diáková, Jessica Ernakovich, Cristian Estop-Aragones, David E. Graham, Iain P. Hartley, Colleen M. Iversen, Evan S. Kane, Christian Knoblauch, Massimo Lupascu, Pertti J. Martikainen, Susan M. Natali, Richard J. Norby, Jonathan A. O'Donnell, Taniya Roy Chowdhury, Hana Šantrůčková, Gaius Shaver, Victoria L. Sloan, Claire C. Treat, Merritt R. Turetsky, Mark P. Waldrop, and Kimberly P. Wickland

https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3054

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Abstract

Increasing temperatures in northern high latitudes are causing permafrost to thaw, making large amounts of previously frozen organic matter vulnerable to microbial decomposition. Permafrost thaw also creates a fragmented landscape of drier and wetter soil conditions that determine the amount and form (carbon dioxide (CO₂), or methane (CH₄)) of carbon (C) released to the atmosphere. The rate and form of C release control the magnitude of the permafrost C feedback, so their relative contribution with a warming climate remains unclear. We quantified the effect of increasing temperature and changes from aerobic to anaerobic soil conditions using 25 soil incubation studies from the permafrost zone. Here we show, using two separate meta-analyses, that a 10 °C increase in incubation temperature increased C release by a factor of 2.0 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.8 to 2.2). Under aerobic incubation conditions, soils released 3.4 (95% CI, 2.2 to 5.2) times more C than under anaerobic conditions. Even when accounting for the higher heat trapping capacity of CH₄, soils released 2.3 (95% CI, 1.5 to 3.4) times more C under aerobic conditions. These results imply that permafrost ecosystems thawing under aerobic conditions and releasing CO₂ will strengthen the permafrost C feedback more than waterlogged systems releasing CO₂ and CH₄ for a given amount of C.

Additional publication details
Publication type	Article
Publication Subtype	Journal Article
Title	Potential carbon emissions dominated by carbon dioxide from thawed permafrost soils
Series title	Nature Climate Change
DOI	10.1038/nclimate3054
Volume	6
Year Published	2016
Language	English
Publisher	Nature
Contributing office(s)	Volcano Science Center
Description	4 p.
First page	950
Last page	953
Google Analytic Metrics	Metrics page