Intra-community implications of implementing multiple tsunami-evacuation zones in Alameda, California

Natural Hazards
By: , and 

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Abstract

Tsunami-evacuation planning in coastal communities is typically based on maximum evacuation zones for a single scenario or a composite of sources; however, this approach may over-evacuate a community and overly disrupt the local economy and strain emergency-service resources. To minimize the potential for future over-evacuations, multiple evacuation zones based on arrival time and inundation extent are being developed for California coastal communities. We use the coastal city of Alameda, California (USA), as a case study to explore population and evacuation implications associated with multiple tsunami-evacuation zones. We use geospatial analyses to estimate the number and type of people in each tsunami-evacuation zone and anisotropic pedestrian evacuation models to estimate pedestrian travel time out of each zone. Results demonstrate that there are tens of thousands of individuals in tsunami-evacuation zones on the two main islands of Alameda, but they will likely have sufficient time to evacuate before wave arrival. Quality of life could be impacted by the high number of government offices, schools, day-care centers, and medical offices in certain evacuation zones and by potentially high population density at one identified safe area after an evacuation. Multi-jurisdictional evacuation planning may be warranted, given that many at-risk individuals may need to evacuate to neighboring jurisdictions. The use of maximum evacuation zones for local tsunami sources may be warranted given the limited amount of available time to confidently recommend smaller zones which would result in fewer evacuees; however, this approach may also result in over-evacuation and the incorrect perception that successful evacuations are unlikely.

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Additional publication details

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Intra-community implications of implementing multiple tsunami-evacuation zones in Alameda, California
Series title Natural Hazards
DOI 10.1007/s11069-016-2469-8
Volume 84
Issue 2
Year Published 2016
Language English
Publisher International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards
Publisher location Dordrecht
Contributing office(s) Western Geographic Science Center
Description 21 p.
First page 975
Last page 995
Country United States
State California
City Alameda