A method for testing whether model predictions fall within a prescribed factor of true values, with an application to pesticide leaching

Ecological Modelling
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Abstract

A quantitative method is described for testing whether model predictions fall within a specified factor of true values. The technique is based on classical theory for confidence regions on unknown population parameters and can be related to hypothesis testing in both univariate and multivariate situations. A capability index is defined that can be used as a measure of predictive capability of a model, and its properties are discussed. The testing approach and the capability index should facilitate model validation efforts and permit comparisons among competing models. An example is given for a pesticide leaching model that predicts chemical concentrations in the soil profile.

Additional publication details

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title A method for testing whether model predictions fall within a prescribed factor of true values, with an application to pesticide leaching
Series title Ecological Modelling
DOI 10.1016/0304-3800(90)90058-O
Volume 51
Issue 1-2
Year Published 1990
Language English
Publisher Elsevier
Contributing office(s) Toxic Substances Hydrology Program
Description 14 p.
First page 59
Last page 72