Iterative ecological forecasting: Needs, opportunities, and challenges
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Abstract
A fundamental environmental challenge facing humanity in the 21st century and beyond is predicting the impacts of global environmental change. This challenge is complicated by the fact that we live on a non-stationary, unreplicated planet that is rapidly moving outside the envelope of natural variability into an historical non-analog world. In other words, while the past helps inform us about how the world has worked, it may no longer be the relevant frame of reference for management, conservation, and sustainability. In this future world the two questions at the foundation of sustainability are “How are ecosystems and the services they provide going to change in the future?” and “How do human decisions affect this trajectory?” These are, at their heart, questions about ecological forecasting.
| Publication type | Conference Paper |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Conference Paper |
| Title | Iterative ecological forecasting: Needs, opportunities, and challenges |
| DOI | 10.6084/m9.figshare.4715317 |
| Year Published | 2016 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | National Ecological Observatory Network |
| Publisher location | Fort Collins, CO |
| Contributing office(s) | National Research Program - Eastern Branch |
| Description | 71 p. |
| Conference Title | NEON Workshop: Operationalizing Ecological Forecasting |
| Conference Date | January 6-8, 2016 |
| Google Analytic Metrics | Metrics page |