Foreshocks, aftershocks, and earthquake probabilities: Accounting for the landers earthquake

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
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Abstract

The equation to determine the probability that an earthquake occurring near a major fault will be a foreshock to a mainshock on that fault is modified to include the case of aftershocks to a previous earthquake occurring near the fault. The addition of aftershocks to the background seismicity makes its less probable that an earthquake will be a foreshock, because nonforeshocks have become more common. As the aftershocks decay with time, the probability that an earthquake will be a foreshock increases. However, fault interactions between the first mainshock and the major fault can increase the long-term probability of a characteristic earthquake on that fault, which will, in turn, increase the probability that an event is a foreshock, compensating for the decrease caused by the aftershocks.

Additional publication details

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Foreshocks, aftershocks, and earthquake probabilities: Accounting for the landers earthquake
Series title Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
Volume 84
Issue 3
Year Published 1994
Language English
Publisher Seismological Society of America
Description 8 p.
First page 892
Last page 899