Foreshocks, aftershocks, and earthquake probabilities: Accounting for the landers earthquake
The equation to determine the probability that an earthquake occurring near a major fault will be a foreshock to a mainshock on that fault is modified to include the case of aftershocks to a previous earthquake occurring near the fault. The addition of aftershocks to the background seismicity makes its less probable that an earthquake will be a foreshock, because nonforeshocks have become more common. As the aftershocks decay with time, the probability that an earthquake will be a foreshock increases. However, fault interactions between the first mainshock and the major fault can increase the long-term probability of a characteristic earthquake on that fault, which will, in turn, increase the probability that an event is a foreshock, compensating for the decrease caused by the aftershocks.
Additional publication details
|Publication Subtype||Journal Article|
|Title||Foreshocks, aftershocks, and earthquake probabilities: Accounting for the landers earthquake|
|Series title||Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America|
|Publisher||Seismological Society of America|