Model calibration and issues related to validation, sensitivity analysis, post-audit, uncertainty evaluation and assessment of prediction data needs

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Abstract

When simulating natural and engineered groundwater flow and transport systems, one objective is to produce a model that accurately represents important aspects of the true system. However, using direct measurements of system characteristics, such as hydraulic conductivity, to construct a model often produces simulated values that poorly match observations of the system state, such as hydraulic heads, flows and concentrations (for example, Barth et al., 2001). This occurs because of inaccuracies in the direct measurements and because the measurements commonly characterize system properties at different scales from that of the model aspect to which they are applied. In these circumstances, the conservation of mass equations represented by flow and transport models can be used to test the applicability of the direct measurements, such as by comparing model simulated values to the system state observations. This comparison leads to calibrating the model, by adjusting the model construction and the system properties as represented by model parameter values, so that the model produces simulated values that reasonably match the observations.

Additional publication details

Publication type Book chapter
Publication Subtype Book Chapter
Title Model calibration and issues related to validation, sensitivity analysis, post-audit, uncertainty evaluation and assessment of prediction data needs
DOI 10.1007/978-1-4020-5729-8_9
Year Published 2007
Language English
Publisher Springer Netherlands
Contributing office(s) Office of Ground Water
Description 46 p.
Larger Work Type Book
Larger Work Subtype Monograph
Larger Work Title Groundwater: Resource Evaluation, Augmentation, Contamination, Restoration, Modeling and Management
First page 237
Last page 282