Used-habitat calibration plots: A new procedure for validating species distribution, resource selection, and step-selection models

Ecography
By: , and 

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Abstract

“Species distribution modeling” was recently ranked as one of the top five “research fronts” in ecology and the environmental sciences by ISI's Essential Science Indicators (Renner and Warton 2013), reflecting the importance of predicting how species distributions will respond to anthropogenic change. Unfortunately, species distribution models (SDMs) often perform poorly when applied to novel environments. Compounding on this problem is the shortage of methods for evaluating SDMs (hence, we may be getting our predictions wrong and not even know it). Traditional methods for validating SDMs quantify a model's ability to classify locations as used or unused. Instead, we propose to focus on how well SDMs can predict the characteristics of used locations. This subtle shift in viewpoint leads to a more natural and informative evaluation and validation of models across the entire spectrum of SDMs. Through a series of examples, we show how simple graphical methods can help with three fundamental challenges of habitat modeling: identifying missing covariates, non-linearity, and multicollinearity. Identifying habitat characteristics that are not well-predicted by the model can provide insights into variables affecting the distribution of species, suggest appropriate model modifications, and ultimately improve the reliability and generality of conservation and management recommendations.

Additional publication details

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Used-habitat calibration plots: A new procedure for validating species distribution, resource selection, and step-selection models
Series title Ecography
DOI 10.1111/ecog.03123
Volume 41
Issue 5
Year Published 2018
Language English
Publisher Wiley
Contributing office(s) Northern Prairie Wildlife Research Center
Description 16 p.
First page 737
Last page 752