Combining multiple earthquake models in real time for earthquake early warning

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
By: , and 

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Abstract

The ultimate goal of earthquake early warning (EEW) is to provide local shaking information to users before the strong shaking from an earthquake reaches their location. This is accomplished by operating one or more real‐time analyses that attempt to predict shaking intensity, often by estimating the earthquake’s location and magnitude and then predicting the ground motion from that point source. Other EEW algorithms use finite rupture models or may directly estimate ground motion without first solving for an earthquake source. EEW performance could be improved if the information from these diverse and independent prediction models could be combined into one unified, ground‐motion prediction. In this article, we set the forecast shaking at each location as the common ground to combine all these predictions and introduce a Bayesian approach to creating better ground‐motion predictions. We also describe how this methodology could be used to build a new generation of EEW systems that provide optimal decisions customized for each user based on the user’s individual false‐alarm tolerance and the time necessary for that user to react.

Additional publication details

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Combining multiple earthquake models in real time for earthquake early warning
Series title Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America
DOI 10.1785/0120160331
Volume 107
Issue 4
Year Published 2017
Language English
Publisher Seismological Society of America
Contributing office(s) Earthquake Science Center
Description 15 p.
First page 1868
Last page 1882
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