The California Earthquake Advisory Plan: A history

Seismological Research Letters
By:  and 



Since 1985, the California Office of Emergency Services (Cal OES) has issued advisory statements to local jurisdictions and the public following seismic activity that scientists on the California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council view as indicating elevated probability of a larger earthquake in the same area during the next several days. These advisory statements are motivated by statistical studies showing that about 5% of moderate earthquakes in California are followed by larger events within a 10-km, five-day space-time window (Jones, 1985; Agnew and Jones, 1991; Reasenberg and Jones, 1994). Cal OES issued four earthquake advisories from 1985 to 1989. In October, 1990, the California Earthquake Advisory Plan formalized this practice, and six Cal OES Advisories have been issued since then. This article describes that protocol’s scientific basis and evolution.

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title The California Earthquake Advisory Plan: A history
Series title Seismological Research Letters
DOI 10.1785/0220160183
Volume 88
Issue 3
Year Published 2017
Language English
Publisher Seismological Society of America
Contributing office(s) Earthquake Science Center
Description 14 p.
First page 784
Last page 797
Country United States
State California
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