Periodic, chaotic, and doubled earthquake recurrence intervals on the deep San Andreas Fault

Science
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Abstract

Earthquake recurrence histories may provide clues to the timing of future events, but long intervals between large events obscure full recurrence variability. In contrast, small earthquakes occur frequently, and recurrence intervals are quantifiable on a much shorter time scale. In this work, I examine an 8.5-year sequence of more than 900 recurring low-frequency earthquake bursts composing tremor beneath the San Andreas fault near Parkfield, California. These events exhibit tightly clustered recurrence intervals that, at times, oscillate between ~3 and ~6 days, but the patterns sometimes change abruptly. Although the environments of large and low-frequency earthquakes are different, these observations suggest that similar complexity might underlie sequences of large earthquakes.

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Additional publication details

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Periodic, chaotic, and doubled earthquake recurrence intervals on the deep San Andreas Fault
Series title Science
DOI 10.1126/science.1189741
Volume 328
Issue 5984
Year Published 2010
Language English
Publisher AAAS
Contributing office(s) Earthquake Science Center
Description 4 p.
First page 1385
Last page 1388
Country United States
State California
Other Geospatial San Andreas Fault