A prototype operational earthquake loss model for California based on UCERF3-ETAS – A first look at valuation

Earthquake Spectra
By: , and 

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Abstract

We present a prototype operational loss model based on UCERF3-ETAS, which is the third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast with an Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) component. As such, UCERF3-ETAS represents the first earthquake forecast to relax fault segmentation assumptions and to include multi-fault ruptures, elastic-rebound, and spatiotemporal clustering, all of which seem important for generating realistic and useful aftershock statistics. UCERF3-ETAS is nevertheless an approximation of the system, however, so usefulness will vary and potential value needs to be ascertained in the context of each application. We examine this question with respect to statewide loss estimates, exemplifying how risk can be elevated by orders of magnitude due to triggered events following various scenario earthquakes. Two important considerations are the probability gains, relative to loss likelihoods in the absence of main shocks, and the rapid decay of gains with time. Significant uncertainties and model limitations remain, so we hope this paper will inspire similar analyses with respect to other risk metrics to help ascertain whether operationalization of UCERF3-ETAS would be worth the considerable resources required.

Additional publication details

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title A prototype operational earthquake loss model for California based on UCERF3-ETAS – A first look at valuation
Series title Earthquake Spectra
DOI 10.1193/011817EQS017M
Volume 33
Issue 4
Year Published 2017
Language English
Publisher EERI
Contributing office(s) Geologic Hazards Science Center
Description 21 p.
First page 1279
Last page 1299