Natural and human-induced variability in barrier-island response to sea level rise

Geophysical Research Letters
By:  and 

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Abstract

Storm-driven sediment fluxes onto and behind barrier islands help coastal barrier systems keep pace with sea level rise (SLR). Understanding what controls cross-shore sediment flux magnitudes is critical for making accurate forecasts of barrier response to increased SLR rates. Here, using an existing morphodynamic model for barrier island evolution, observations are used to constrain model parameters and explore potential variability in future barrier behavior. Using modeled drowning outcomes as a proxy for vulnerability to SLR, 0%, 28%, and 100% of the barrier is vulnerable to SLR rates of 4, 7, and 10 mm/yr, respectively. When only overwash fluxes are increased in the model, drowning vulnerability increases for the same rates of SLR, suggesting that future increases in storminess may increase island vulnerability particularly where sediment resources are limited. Developed sites are more vulnerable to SLR, indicating that anthropogenic changes to overwash fluxes and estuary depths could profoundly affect future barrier response to SLR.

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Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Natural and human-induced variability in barrier-island response to sea level rise
Series title Geophysical Research Letters
DOI 10.1002/2017GL074811
Volume 44
Issue 23
Year Published 2017
Language English
Publisher AGU Publications
Contributing office(s) St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center
Description 10 p.
First page 11922
Last page 11931
Country United States
State New Jersey
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