Influences of spawning timing, water temperature, and climatic warming on early life history phenology in western Alaska sockeye salmon

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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Abstract

We applied an empirical model to predict hatching and emergence timing for 25 western Alaska sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) populations in four lake-nursery systems to explore current patterns and potential responses of early life history phenology to warming water temperatures. Given experienced temperature regimes during development, we predicted hatching to occur in as few as 58 d to as many as 260 d depending on spawning timing and temperature. For a focal lake spawning population, our climate-lake temperature model predicted a water temperature increase of 0.7 to 1.4 °C from 2015 to 2099 during the incubation period, which translated to a 16 d to 30 d earlier hatching timing. The most extreme scenarios of warming advanced development by approximately a week earlier than historical minima and thus climatic warming may lead to only modest shifts in phenology during the early life history stage of this population. The marked variation in the predicted timing of hatching and emergence among populations in close proximity on the landscape may serve to buffer this metapopulation from climate change.

Additional publication details

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Influences of spawning timing, water temperature, and climatic warming on early life history phenology in western Alaska sockeye salmon
Series title Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
DOI 10.1139/cjfas-2017-0468
Edition Online First
Year Published 2018
Language English
Publisher Canadian Science Publishing
Contributing office(s) Coop Res Unit Seattle