A physics-based earthquake simulator replicates seismic hazard statistics across California

Science Advances
By: , and 

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Abstract

Seismic hazard models are important for society, feeding into building codes and hazard mitigation efforts. These models, however, rest on many uncertain assumptions and are difficult to test observationally because of the long recurrence times of large earthquakes. Physics-based earthquake simulators offer a potentially helpful tool, but they face a vast range of fundamental scientific uncertainties. We compare a physics-based earthquake simulator against the latest seismic hazard model for California. Using only uniform parameters in the simulator, we find strikingly good agreement of the long-term shaking hazard compared with the California model. This ability to replicate statistically based seismic hazard estimates by a physics-based model cross-validates standard methods and provides a new alternative approach needing fewer inputs and assumptions for estimating hazard.

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Additional publication details

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title A physics-based earthquake simulator replicates seismic hazard statistics across California
Series title Science Advances
DOI 10.1126/sciadv.aau0688
Volume 4
Issue 8
Year Published 2018
Language English
Publisher AAAS
Contributing office(s) Geologic Hazards Science Center
Description eaau0688; 9 p.
First page 1
Last page 9
Country United States
State California