Quantifying climate sensitivity and climate-driven change in North American amphibian communities

David A.W. Miller; Evan H. Campbell Grant; Erin L. Muths; Staci M. Amburgey; M. J. Adams; Maxwell B. Joseph; J. Hardin Waddle; Pieter T.J. Johnson; Maureen E. Ryan; Benedikt R. Schmidt; Daniel L. Calhoun; Courtney L. Davis; Robert N. Fisher; David M. Green; Blake R. Hossack; Tracy A.G. Rittenhouse; Susan C. Walls; Larissa L. Bailey; Sam S. Cruickshank; Gary M. Fellers; Thomas A. Gorman; Carola A. Haas; Ward Hughson; David S. Pilliod; Steven J. Price; Andrew M. Ray; Walter Sadinski; Daniel Saenz; William J. Barichivich; Adrianne B. Brand; Cheryl S. Brehme; Rosi Dagit; Katy S. Delaney; Brad M. Glorioso; Lee B. Kats; Patrick M. Kleeman; Christopher Pearl; Carlton J. Rochester; Seth P. D. Riley; Mark F. Roth; Brent Sigafus

doi:10.1038/s41467-018-06157-6

Quantifying climate sensitivity and climate-driven change in North American amphibian communities

Nature Communications

By: David A.W. Miller, Evan H. Campbell Grant, Erin L. Muths, Staci M. Amburgey, M. J. Adams, Maxwell B. Joseph, J. Hardin Waddle, Pieter T.J. Johnson, Maureen E. Ryan, Benedikt R. Schmidt, Daniel L. Calhoun, Courtney L. Davis, Robert N. Fisher, David M. Green, Blake R. Hossack, Tracy A.G. Rittenhouse, Susan C. Walls, Larissa L. Bailey, Sam S. Cruickshank, Gary M. Fellers, Thomas A. Gorman, Carola A. Haas, Ward Hughson, David S. Pilliod, Steven J. Price, Andrew M. Ray, Walter Sadinski, Daniel Saenz, William J. Barichivich, Adrianne B. Brand, Cheryl S. Brehme, Rosi Dagit, Katy S. Delaney, Brad M. Glorioso, Lee B. Kats, Patrick M. Kleeman, Christopher Pearl, Carlton J. Rochester, Seth P. D. Riley, Mark F. Roth, and Brent Sigafus

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-06157-6

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Abstract

Changing climate will impact species’ ranges only when environmental variability directly impacts the demography of local populations. However, measurement of demographic responses to climate change has largely been limited to single species and locations. Here we show that amphibian communities are responsive to climatic variability, using >500,000 time-series observations for 81 species across 86 North American study areas. The effect of climate on local colonization and persistence probabilities varies among eco-regions and depends on local climate, species life-histories, and taxonomic classification. We found that local species richness is most sensitive to changes in water availability during breeding and changes in winter conditions. Based on the relationships we measure, recent changes in climate cannot explain why local species richness of North American amphibians has rapidly declined. However, changing climate does explain why some populations are declining faster than others. Our results provide important insights into how amphibians respond to climate and a general framework for measuring climate impacts on species richness.

Additional publication details
Publication type	Article
Publication Subtype	Journal Article
Title	Quantifying climate sensitivity and climate-driven change in North American amphibian communities
Series title	Nature Communications
DOI	10.1038/s41467-018-06157-6
Volume	9
Year Published	2018
Language	English
Publisher	Nature
Contributing office(s)	Forest and Rangeland Ecosys Science Center, Fort Collins Science Center, Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center, Patuxent Wildlife Research Center, Southwest Biological Science Center, Upper Midwest Environmental Sciences Center, Western Ecological Research Center, South Atlantic Water Science Center, Wetland and Aquatic Research Center, John Wesley Powell Center for Analysis and Synthesis
Description	3926, 15 p.
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