Forecasts of coastal change hazards

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Model predictions of severe storm impacts provide coastal residents, emergency managers, and partner organizations valuable predictive information for planning and response to extreme storm events. The foundation of this work is a USGS-developed numerical model to forecast storm-induced coastal water levels and expected coastal change, including dune erosion, overwash, and inundation. The model is operated in three modes: generalized scenarios, real-time storms, and an operational forecast, with each mode requiring slightly different water level inputs. To evaluate and improve the accuracy of the models, we collect data on water levels and coastal change. In particular, observations before, after, and during storm conditions are used to test the different model applications. Forecast validation for Hurricanes Matthew (2016) and Irma (2017) illustrate three cases with demonstrated forecast skill and three cases with poor skill, and reveal elements of the modeling and/or testing approach which require improvement.

Additional publication details

Publication type Conference Paper
Publication Subtype Conference Paper
Title Forecasts of coastal change hazards
DOI 10.1142/9789811204487_0122
Year Published 2019
Language English
Publisher World Scientific
Contributing office(s) St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center
Description 10 p.
Larger Work Type Book
Larger Work Subtype Conference publication
Larger Work Title Coastal Sediments 2019: Proceedings of the 9th international conference
First page 1400
Last page 1409
Conference Title Coastal Sediments 2019
Conference Location Tampa/St. Petersburg, FL
Conference Date May 27-31, 2019
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