Precipitation regime change in Western North America: The role of atmospheric rivers

Alexander Gerhunov; Tamara Shulgina; Rachel Clemesha; Kristen Guirguis; David Pierce; Michael D. Dettinger; David A. Lavers; Daniel Cayan; Suraj Polade; Julie Kalansky; Martin Ralph

doi:10.1038/s41598-019-46169-w

Precipitation regime change in Western North America: The role of atmospheric rivers

Scientific Reports

By: Alexander Gerhunov, Tamara Shulgina, Rachel Clemesha, Kristen Guirguis, David Pierce, Michael D. Dettinger, David A. Lavers, Daniel Cayan, Suraj Polade, Julie Kalansky, and Martin Ralph

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-46169-w

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Abstract

Daily precipitation in California has been projected to become less frequent even as precipitation extremes intensify, leading to uncertainty in the overall response to climate warming. Precipitation extremes are historically associated with Atmospheric Rivers (ARs). Sixteen global climate models are evaluated for realism in modeled historical AR behavior and contribution of the resulting daily precipitation to annual total precipitation over Western North America. The five most realistic models display consistent changes in future AR behavior, constraining the spread of the full ensemble. They, moreover, project increasing year-to-year variability of total annual precipitation, particularly over California, where change in total annual precipitation is not projected with confidence. Focusing on three representative river basins along the West Coast, we show that, while the decrease in precipitation frequency is mostly due to non-AR events, the increase in heavy and extreme precipitation is almost entirely due to ARs. This research demonstrates that examining meteorological causes of precipitation regime change can lead to better and more nuanced understanding of climate projections. It highlights the critical role of future changes in ARs to Western water resources, especially over California.

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Additional publication details
Publication type	Article
Publication Subtype	Journal Article
Title	Precipitation regime change in Western North America: The role of atmospheric rivers
Series title	Scientific Reports
DOI	10.1038/s41598-019-46169-w
Volume	9
Year Published	2019
Language	English
Publisher	Nature
Contributing office(s)	WMA - Earth System Processes Division
Description	9944, 11 p.
Country	United States
State	California
Google Analytic Metrics	Metrics page