The 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview of model and implications

Mark D. Petersen; Allison Shumway; Peter M. Powers; Charles Mueller; Morgan P. Moschetti; Arthur Frankel; Sanaz Rezaeian; Daniel E. McNamara; Nicolas Luco; Oliver S. Boyd; Kenneth S. Rukstales; Kishor Jaiswal; Eric M. Thompson; Susan M. Hoover; Brandon Clayton; Edward H. Field; Yuehua Zeng

doi:10.1177/8755293019878199

The 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview of model and implications

Earthquake Spectra

By: Mark D. Petersen, Allison Shumway, Peter M. Powers, Charles Mueller, Morgan P. Moschetti, Arthur Frankel, Sanaz Rezaeian, Daniel E. McNamara, Nicolas Luco, Oliver S. Boyd, Kenneth S. Rukstales, Kishor Jaiswal, Eric M. Thompson, Susan M. Hoover, Brandon Clayton, Edward H. Field, and Yuehua Zeng

https://doi.org/10.1177/8755293019878199

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Abstract

During 2017–2018, the National Seismic Hazard Model for the conterminous United States was updated as follows: (1) an updated seismicity catalog was incorporated, which includes new earthquakes that occurred from 2013 to 2017; (2) in the central and eastern United States (CEUS), new ground motion models were updated that incorporate updated median estimates, modified assessments of the associated epistemic uncertainties and aleatory variabilities, and new soil amplification factors; (3) in the western United States (WUS), amplified shaking estimates of long-period ground motions at sites overlying deep sedimentary basins in the Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle, and Salt Lake City areas were incorporated; and (4) in the conterminous United States, seismic hazard is calculated for 22 periods (from 0.01 to 10 s) and 8 uniform V_S30 maps (ranging from 1500 to 150 m/s). We also include a description of updated computer codes and modeling details. Results show increased ground shaking in many (but not all) locations across the CEUS (up to ~30%), as well as near the four urban areas overlying deep sedimentary basins in the WUS (up to ~50%). Due to population growth and these increased hazard estimates, more people live or work in areas of high or moderate seismic hazard than ever before, leading to higher risk of undesirable consequences from forecasted future ground shaking.

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Additional publication details
Publication type	Article
Publication Subtype	Journal Article
Title	The 2018 update of the US National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview of model and implications
Series title	Earthquake Spectra
DOI	10.1177/8755293019878199
Volume	36
Issue	1
Year Published	2019
Language	English
Publisher	Sage
Contributing office(s)	Geologic Hazards Science Center
Description	37 p.
First page	5
Last page	41
Country	United States
Google Analytic Metrics	Metrics page