Construction of probabilistic event trees for eruption forecasting at Sinabung volcano, Indonesia 2013–14

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research
CVGHM, Indonesia
By: , and 

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Abstract

Eruptions of Sinabung volcano, Indonesia have been ongoing since 2013. Since that time, the character of eruptions has changed, from phreatic to phreatomagmatic to magmatic explosive eruptions, and from production of a lava dome that collapsed to a subsequent thick lava flow that slowly ceased to be active, and later, to a new lava dome. As the eruption progressed, event trees were constructed to forecast eruptive behavior six times, with forecast windows that ranged from 2 weeks to 1 year: November 7–10, December 12–14, and December 27, 2013; and January 9–10, May 13, and October 7, 2014. These event trees were successful in helping to frame the forecast scenarios, to collate current monitoring information, and to document outstanding questions and unknowns. The highest probability forecasts closely matched outcomes of eruption size (including extrusion of the first dome), production of pyroclastic density currents, and pyroclastic density current runout distances. Events assigned low probabilities also occurred, including total collapse of the lava dome in January 2014 and production of a small blast pyroclastic density current in February 2014.

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    Publication type Article
    Publication Subtype Journal Article
    Title Construction of probabilistic event trees for eruption forecasting at Sinabung volcano, Indonesia 2013–14
    Series title Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research
    DOI 10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2018.02.003
    Volume 382
    Year Published 2019
    Language English
    Publisher Elsevier
    Contributing office(s) Volcano Science Center
    Description 20 p.
    First page 233
    Last page 252
    Country Indonesia
    Other Geospatial Sinabung volcano
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