A non-intrusive approach for efficient stochastic emulation and optimization of model-based nitrate-loading management decision support
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Abstract
Use of physically-motivated numerical models like groundwater flow-and-transport models for probabilistic impact assessments and optimization under uncertainty (OUU) typically incurs such a computational burdensome that these tools cannot be used during decision making. The computational challenges associated with these models can be addressed through emulation. In the land-use/water-quality context, the linear relation between nitrate loading and surface-water/groundwater nitrate concentrations presents an opportunity for employing an efficient model emulator through the application of impulse-response matrices. When paired with first-order second-moment techniques, the emulation strategy gives rise to the “stochastic impulse-response emulator” (SIRE). SIRE is shown to facilitate non-intrusive, near-real time, and risk-based evaluation of nitrate-loading change scenarios, as well as nitrate-loading OUU subject to surface-water/groundwater concentration constraints in high decision variable and parameter dimensions. Two case studies are used to demonstrate SIRE in the nitrate-loading context.
Study Area
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | A non-intrusive approach for efficient stochastic emulation and optimization of model-based nitrate-loading management decision support |
| Series title | Environmental Modeling and Software |
| DOI | 10.1016/j.envsoft.2020.104657 |
| Volume | 126 |
| Year Published | 2020 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | Elsevier |
| Contributing office(s) | WMA - Integrated Modeling and Prediction Division |
| Description | 104657, 11 p. |
| Country | New Zealand |
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