Forecasting induced earthquake hazard using a hydromechanical earthquake nucleation model

Seismological Research Letters
By: , and 

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Abstract

In response to the dramatic increase in earthquake rates in the central United States, the U.S Geological Survey began releasing 1 yr earthquake hazard models for induced earthquakes in 2016. Although these models have been shown to accurately forecast earthquake hazard, they rely purely on earthquake statistics because there was no precedent for forecasting induced earthquakes based upon wastewater injection data. Since the publication of these hazard models, multiple physics‐based methods have been proposed to forecast earthquake rates using injection data. Here, we use one of these methods to generate earthquake hazard forecasts. Our earthquake hazard forecasts are more accurate than statistics‐based hazard forecasts. These results imply that fluid injection data, where and when available, and the physical implications of fluid injection should be included in future induced earthquake hazard forecasts.

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Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Forecasting induced earthquake hazard using a hydromechanical earthquake nucleation model
Series title Seismological Research Letters
DOI 10.1785/0220200215
Edition Online First
Year Published 2021
Language English
Publisher Seismological Society of America
Contributing office(s) Earthquake Science Center
Country United States
State Kansas, Oklahoma
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