Enhanced El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability in recent decades
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Abstract
The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) represents the largest source of year-to-year global climate variability. While Earth system models suggest a range of possible shifts in ENSO properties under continued greenhouse gas forcing, many centuries of preindustrial climate data are required to detect a potential shift in the properties of recent ENSO extremes. Here we reconstruct the strength of ENSO variations over the last 7,000 years with a new ensemble of fossil coral oxygen isotope records from the Line Islands, located in the central equatorial Pacific. The corals document a significant decrease in ENSO variance of ~20% from 3,000 to 5,000 years ago, coinciding with changes in spring/fall precessional insolation. We find that ENSO variability over the last five decades is ~25% stronger than during the preindustrial. Our results provide empirical support for recent climate model projections showing an intensification of ENSO extremes under greenhouse forcing.
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Enhanced El Niño-Southern Oscillation variability in recent decades |
| Series title | Geophysical Research Letters |
| DOI | 10.1029/2019GL083906 |
| Volume | 46 |
| Issue | 7 |
| Year Published | 2020 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | American Geophysical Union |
| Contributing office(s) | St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center |
| Description | e2019GL083906, 8 p. |
| Google Analytic Metrics | Metrics page |