Modeling the occurrence of M ∼ 5 caldera collapse-related earthquakes in Kīlauea volcano, Hawai'i
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Abstract
During the 2018 Kīlauea eruption and caldera collapse, M ∼ 5 caldera collapse earthquakes occurred almost daily from mid-May until the beginning of August. While caldera collapses happen infrequently, the collapse-related seismicity damaged nearby structures, and so these events should be included in a complete seismic hazard assessment. Here, we present an approach to forecast the seismic hazard of the collapse earthquakes. We model their occurrence by combining a Poisson distribution for the number of collapses with a negative binomial for the number of earthquakes in a collapse, based on observations at Kīlauea. This rate model is then combined with a ground motion model to assess the seismic hazard posed by caldera collapse events. The rate model is non-Poisson but a Poisson model is adequate for low exceedance probabilities (e.g., <10% in 50 years). This approach could be generalized to model the hazard from earthquakes triggered by other underlying processes.
Study Area
| Publication type | Article |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | Journal Article |
| Title | Modeling the occurrence of M ∼ 5 caldera collapse-related earthquakes in Kīlauea volcano, Hawai'i |
| Series title | Geophysical Research Letters |
| DOI | 10.1029/2020GL092242 |
| Volume | 49 |
| Issue | 1 |
| Year Published | 2022 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | American Geophysical Union |
| Contributing office(s) | Earthquake Science Center, Geologic Hazards Science Center |
| Description | e2020GL092242, 9 p. |
| Country | United States |
| State | Hawaii |
| Other Geospatial | Kīlauea volcano |
| Google Analytic Metrics | Metrics page |