Spatial sampling bias and model complexity in stream-based species distribution models: A case study of Paddlefish (Polyodon spathula) in the Arkansas River basin, USA

Ecology & Evolution
By: , and 

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Abstract

Leveraging existing presence records and geospatial datasets, species distribution modeling has been widely applied to informing species conservation and restoration efforts. Maxent is one of the most popular modeling algorithms, yet recent research has demonstrated Maxent models are vulnerable to prediction errors related to spatial sampling bias and model complexity. Despite elevated rates of biodiversity imperilment in stream ecosystems, the application of Maxent models to stream networks has lagged, as has the availability of tools to address potential sources of error and calculate model evaluation metrics when modeling in nonraster environments (such as stream networks). Herein, we use Maxent and customized R code to estimate the potential distribution of paddlefish (Polyodon spathula) at a stream-segment level within the Arkansas River basin, USA, while accounting for potential spatial sampling bias and model complexity. Filtering the presence data appeared to adequately remove an eastward, large-river sampling bias that was evident within the unfiltered presence dataset. In particular, our novel riverscape filter provided a repeatable means of obtaining a relatively even coverage of presence data among watersheds and streams of varying sizes. The greatest differences in estimated distributions were observed among models constructed with default versus AICC-selected parameterization. Although all models had similarly high performance and evaluation metrics, the AICC-selected models were more inclusive of westward-situated and smaller, headwater streams. Overall, our results solidified the importance of accounting for model complexity and spatial sampling bias in SDMs constructed within stream networks and provided a roadmap for future paddlefish restoration efforts in the study area.

Study Area

Publication type Article
Publication Subtype Journal Article
Title Spatial sampling bias and model complexity in stream-based species distribution models: A case study of Paddlefish (Polyodon spathula) in the Arkansas River basin, USA
Series title Ecology & Evolution
DOI 10.1002/ece3.5913
Volume 10
Issue 2
Year Published 2020
Language English
Publisher Wiley
Contributing office(s) Coop Res Unit Atlanta
Description 13 p.
First page 705
Last page 717
Country United States
State Arkansas, Colorado, Kansas, Missouri, Nebraska, New Mexico, Texas
Other Geospatial Arkansas River basin
Google Analytic Metrics Metrics page
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