Structured elicitation of expert judgement in real-time eruption scenarios: An exercise for Piton de la Fournaise volcano, La Réunion island

Alessandro Tadini; Andrew J. L. Harris; Julie Morin; Andrea Bevilacqua; Aline Peltier; Willy Aspinall; Stefano Ciolli; Patrick Bachèlery; Benjamin Bernard; Jonas Biren; António Brum da Silveira; Valéry Cayol; Oryaëlle Chevrel; Diego Coppola; Hannah R. Dietterich; Amy Donovan; Olaya Dorado; Stéphane Drenne; Olivier Dupéré; Lucia Gurioli; Stephan Kolzenburg; Jean-Christophe Komorowski; Philippe Labazuy; Domenico Mangione; Stefano Mannini; François Martel-Asselin; Etienne Médard; Sophie Pailot-Bonnétat; Victoria Rafflin; Michael Ramsey; Nicole Richter; Silvia Vallejo-Vargas; Nicolas Villeneuve; Silvia Zafrilla

doi:10.30909/vol.05.01.105131

Structured elicitation of expert judgement in real-time eruption scenarios: An exercise for Piton de la Fournaise volcano, La Réunion island

Volcanica

By: Alessandro Tadini, Andrew J. L. Harris, Julie Morin, Andrea Bevilacqua, Aline Peltier, Willy Aspinall, Stefano Ciolli, Patrick Bachèlery, Benjamin Bernard, Jonas Biren, António Brum da Silveira, Valéry Cayol, Oryaëlle Chevrel, Diego Coppola, Hannah R. Dietterich, Amy Donovan, Olaya Dorado, Stéphane Drenne, Olivier Dupéré, Lucia Gurioli, Stephan Kolzenburg, Jean-Christophe Komorowski, Philippe Labazuy, Domenico Mangione, Stefano Mannini, François Martel-Asselin, Etienne Médard, Sophie Pailot-Bonnétat, Victoria Rafflin, Michael Ramsey, Nicole Richter, Silvia Vallejo-Vargas, Nicolas Villeneuve, and Silvia Zafrilla

https://doi.org/10.30909/vol.05.01.105131

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Abstract

Formalised elicitation of expert judgements has been used to help tackle several problematic societal issues, including volcanic crises and pandemic threats. We present an expert elicitation exercise for Piton de la Fournaise volcano, La Réunion island, held remotely in April 2021. This involved 28 experts from nine countries who considered a hypothetical effusive eruption crisis involving a new vent opening in a high-risk area. The tele-elicitation presented several challenges, but is a promising and workable option for application to future volcanic crises. Our exercise considered an “uncommon” eruptive scenario with a vent outside the present caldera and within inhabited areas, and provided uncertainty ranges for several hazard-related questions for such a scenario (e.g. probability of eruption within a defined timeframe; elapsed time until lava flow reaches a critical location, and other hazard management issues). Our exercise indicated that such a scenario would probably present very different characteristics compared to recent eruptions, and that it is fundamental to include well-prepared expert elicitations in updated civil protection evacuation plans to improve disaster response procedures.

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Additional publication details
Publication type	Article
Publication Subtype	Journal Article
Title	Structured elicitation of expert judgement in real-time eruption scenarios: An exercise for Piton de la Fournaise volcano, La Réunion island
Series title	Volcanica
DOI	10.30909/vol.05.01.105131
Volume	5
Issue	1
Year Published	2022
Language	English
Publisher	Presses Universitaires de Strasbourg
Contributing office(s)	Volcano Science Center
Description	27 p.
First page	105
Last page	131
Other Geospatial	La Réunion Island, Piton de la Fournaise Volcano
Google Analytic Metrics	Metrics page