Modeling reservoir release using pseudo-prospective learning and physical simulations to predict water temperature

By: , and 
Edited by: Arindam BanerjeeZhi-Hua ZhouEvangelos E. Papalexakis, and Matteo Riondato

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Abstract

This paper proposes a new data-driven method for predicting water temperature in stream networks with reservoirs. The water flows released from reservoirs greatly affect the water temperature of downstream river segments. However, the information of released water flow is often not available for many reservoirs, which makes it difficult for data-driven models to capture the impact to downstream river segments. In this paper, we first build a state-aware graph model to represent the interactions amongst streams and reservoirs, and then propose a parallel learning structure to extract the reservoir release information and use it to improve the prediction. In particular, for reservoirs with no available release information, we mimic the water managers' release decision process through a pseudo-prospective learning method, which infers the release information from anticipated water temperature dynamics. For reservoirs with the release information, we leverage a physics-based model to simulate the water release temperature and transfer such information to guide the learning process for other reservoirs. The evaluation for the Delaware River Basin shows that the proposed method brings over 10% accuracy improvement over existing data-driven models for stream temperature prediction when the release data is not available for any reservoirs. The performance is further improved after we incorporate the release data and physical simulations for a subset of reservoirs.
Publication type Conference Paper
Publication Subtype Conference Paper
Title Modeling reservoir release using pseudo-prospective learning and physical simulations to predict water temperature
DOI 10.1137/1.9781611977172.11
Year Published 2022
Language English
Publisher Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics
Contributing office(s) WMA - Integrated Modeling and Prediction Division
Description 9 p.
Larger Work Type Book
Larger Work Subtype Conference publication
Larger Work Title Proceedings of the 2022 SIAM International Conference on Data Mining (SDM)
First page 91
Last page 99
Conference Title 2022 SIAM International Conference on Data Mining (SDM)
Conference Location Alexandria, Virginia, United States
Conference Date April 28-30, 2022
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