Earthquake Rate Model 2 of the 2007 working group for California earthquake probabilities, magnitude-area relationships

Open-File Report 2007-1437-D
Prepared in cooperation with the California Geological Survey and the Southern California Earthquake Center



The Working Group for California Earthquake Probabilities must transform fault lengths and their slip rates into earthquake moment-magnitudes. First, the down-dip coseismic fault dimension, W, must be inferred. We have chosen the Nazareth and Hauksson (2004) method, which uses the depth above which 99% of the background seismicity occurs to assign W. The product of the observed or inferred fault length, L, with the down-dip dimension, W, gives the fault area, A. We must then use a scaling relation to relate A to moment-magnitude, Mw. We assigned equal weight to the Ellsworth B (Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities, 2003) and Hanks and Bakun (2007) equations. The former uses a single logarithmic relation fitted to the M=6.5 portion of data of Wells and Coppersmith (1994); the latter uses a bilinear relation with a slope change at M=6.65 (A=537 km2) and also was tested against a greatly expanded dataset for large continental transform earthquakes. We also present an alternative power law relation, which fits the newly expanded Hanks and Bakun (2007) data best, and captures the change in slope that Hanks and Bakun attribute to a transition from area- to length-scaling of earthquake slip. We have not opted to use the alternative relation for the current model. The selections and weights were developed by unanimous consensus of the Executive Committee of the Working Group, following an open meeting of scientists, a solicitation of outside opinions from additional scientists, and presentation of our approach to the Scientific Review Panel. The magnitude-area relations and their assigned weights are unchanged from that used in Working Group (2003).
Publication type Report
Publication Subtype USGS Numbered Series
Title Earthquake Rate Model 2 of the 2007 working group for California earthquake probabilities, magnitude-area relationships
Series title Open-File Report
Series number 2007-1437
Chapter D
DOI 10.3133/ofr20071437D
Edition Version 1.0
Year Published 2008
Language English
Publisher U.S. Geological Survey
Publisher location Reston, VA
Contributing office(s) Earthquake Hazards Program, Earthquake Science Center
Description iii, 13 p.
Larger Work Type Report
Larger Work Subtype USGS Numbered Series
Larger Work Title Appendix D in The Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2 (UCERF 2)
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