Model description and evaluation of the mark-recapture survival model used to parameterize the 2012 status and threats analysis for the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris)

Open-File Report 2016-1163
By: , and 

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Abstract

This report provides supporting details and evidence for the rationale, validity and efficacy of a new mark-recapture model, the Barker Robust Design, to estimate regional manatee survival rates used to parameterize several components of the 2012 version of the Manatee Core Biological Model (CBM) and Threats Analysis (TA).  The CBM and TA provide scientific analyses on population viability of the Florida manatee subspecies (Trichechus manatus latirostris) for U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s 5-year reviews of the status of the species as listed under the Endangered Species Act.  The model evaluation is presented in a standardized reporting framework, modified from the TRACE (TRAnsparent and Comprehensive model Evaluation) protocol first introduced for environmental threat analyses.  We identify this new protocol as TRACE-MANATEE SURVIVAL and this model evaluation specifically as TRACE-MANATEE SURVIVAL, Barker RD version 1. The longer-term objectives of the manatee standard reporting format are to (1) communicate to resource managers consistent evaluation information over sequential modeling efforts; (2) build understanding and expertise on the structure and function of the models; (3) document changes in model structures and applications in response to evolving management objectives, new biological and ecological knowledge, and new statistical advances; and (4) provide greater transparency for management and research review.

Suggested Citation

Langtimm, C.A., Kendall, W.L., Beck, C.A., Kochman, H.I., Teague, A.L., Meigs-Friend, Gaia, and Peñaloza, C.L., 2016, Model description and evaluation of the mark-recapture survival model used to parameterize the 2012 status and threats analysis for the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris): U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2016–1163, 20 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20161163.

ISSN: 2331-1258 (online)

Table of Contents

  • Acknowledgments
  • 1 Introduction
  • 2 How to Use This Document
  • 3 Problem Formulation Within the Decisionmaking Context
  • 4 Mark-Recapture Model Description
  • 5 Data Evaluation
  • 6 Model Evaluation
  • 7 Model Implementation Verification
  • 8 Model Output Verification
  • 9 Model Analysis Evaluation
  • 10 Model Output Corroboration
  • References
  • Glossary
Publication type Report
Publication Subtype USGS Numbered Series
Title Model description and evaluation of the mark-recapture survival model used to parameterize the 2012 status and threats analysis for the Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris)
Series title Open-File Report
Series number 2016-1163
DOI 10.3133/ofr20161163
Year Published 2016
Language English
Publisher U.S. Geological Survey
Publisher location Reston, VA
Contributing office(s) Wetland and Aquatic Research Center
Description v, 20 p.
Online Only (Y/N) Y
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