Several U.S. Department of Interior (DOI) agencies are concerned about the cumulative effects of groundwater development on groundwater resources managed by, and other groundwater resources of interest to, these agencies in Snake Valley and surrounding areas. The new water uses that potentially concern the DOI agencies include 12 water-right applications filed in 2005, totaling approximately 8,864 acre-feet per year. To date, only one of these applications has been approved and partially developed. In addition, the DOI agencies are interested in the potential effects of three new water-right applications (UT 18-756, UT 18-758, and UT 18-759) and one water-right change application (UT a40687), which were the subject of a water-right hearing on April 19, 2016.

This report presents a hydrogeologic analysis of areas in and around Snake Valley to assess potential effects of existing and future groundwater development on groundwater resources, specifically groundwater discharge sites, of interest to the DOI agencies. A previously developed steady-state numerical groundwater-flow model was modified to transient conditions with respect to well withdrawals and used to quantify drawdown and capture (withdrawals that result in depletion) of natural discharge from existing and proposed groundwater withdrawals. The original steady-state model simulates and was calibrated to 2009 conditions. To investigate the potential effects of existing and proposed groundwater withdrawals on the groundwater resources of interest to the DOI agencies, 10 withdrawal scenarios were simulated. All scenarios were simulated for periods of 5, 10, 15, 30, 55, and 105 years from the start of 2010; additionally, all scenarios were simulated to a new steady state to determine the ultimate long-term effects of the withdrawals. Capture maps were also constructed as part of this analysis. The simulations used to develop the capture maps test the response of the system, specifically the reduction of natural discharge, to future stresses at a point in the area represented by the model. In this way, these maps can be used as a tool to determine the source of water to, and potential effects at specific areas from, future well withdrawals.

Downward trends in water levels measured in wells indicate that existing groundwater withdrawals in Snake Valley are affecting water levels. The numerical model simulates similar downward trends in water levels; simulated drawdowns in the model, however, are generally less than observed water-level declines. At the groundwater discharge sites of interest to the DOI agencies, simulated drawdowns from existing well withdrawals (projected into the future) range from 0 to about 50 feet. Following the addition of the proposed withdrawals, simulated drawdowns at some sites increase by 25 feet. Simulated drawdown resulting from the proposed withdrawals began in as few as 5 years after 2014 at several of the sites. At the groundwater discharge sites of interest to the DOI agencies, simulated capture of natural discharge resulting from the existing withdrawals ranged from 0 to 87 percent. Following the addition of the proposed withdrawals, simulated capture at several of the sites reached 100 percent, indicating that groundwater discharge at that site would cease. Simulated capture following the addition of the proposed withdrawals increased in as few as 5 years after 2014 at several of the sites.