Some Approaches to Accounting for Incidental Carcass Discoveries in Non-Monitored Years using the Evidence of Absence Model

Open-File Report 2020-1027
By: , and 

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Executive Summary

We evaluate three approaches to accounting for incidental carcasses when estimating an upper bound on total mortality (๐‘€) as ๐‘€โˆ— using the Evidence of Absence model (EoA; Dalthorp and others, 2017) to assess compliance with an Incidental Take Permit (ITP) (Dalthorp & Huso, 2015) under a monitoring protocol that includes formal, dedicated carcass surveys that achieve an overall detection probability of ๐‘”๐‘ =0.15 in the first year, followed by 4 years with no formal monitoring but with carcasses potentially discovered incidentally by operations and maintenance crews in their normal course of activity or otherwise discovered outside the formal searches. We refer to carcasses discovered incidentally as โ€œincidentalsโ€ and define ๐‘ฅ๐‘– as the count of incidentals. Similarly, we define ๐‘ฅ๐‘  as the number of carcasses found during the formal searches conducted the first year.

Suggested Citation

Dalthorp, Daniel, Rabie, Paul, Huso, Manuela, and Tredennick, Andrew, 2020, Some approaches to accounting for incidental carcass discoveries in non-monitored years using the Evidence of Absence model: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2020-1027, 24 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20201027.

ISSN: 2331-1258 (online)

Table of Contents

  • Executive Summary
  • Introduction
  • Three Approaches for Accounting for Incidental Carcasses
  • Simulation Study
  • Results
  • Tables
  • Conclusions
  • Limitations
  • References

Additional publication details

Publication type Report
Publication Subtype USGS Numbered Series
Title Some approaches to accounting for incidental carcass discoveries in non-monitored years using the Evidence of Absence model
Series title Open-File Report
Series number 2020-1027
DOI 10.3133/ofr20201027
Year Published 2020
Language English
Publisher U.S. Geological Survey
Publisher location Reston, VA
Contributing office(s) Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center
Description iv, 22 p.
Online Only (Y/N) Y
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