Changing Storm Conditions in Response to Projected 21st Century Climate Change and the Potential Impact on an Arctic Barrier Island–Lagoon System—A Pilot Study for Arey Island and Lagoon, Eastern Arctic Alaska

Open-File Report 2020-1142
Prepared in cooperation with and funded in part by the Arctic Landscape Conservation Cooperation (ALCC)
By: , and 

Links

  • Document: Report (8.98 MB pdf)
  • Data Release: USGS data release— Modeled 21st century storm surge, waves, and coastal flood hazards and supporting oceanographic and geological field data (2010 and 2011) for Arey and Barter Islands, Alaska and vicinity
  • Download citation as: RIS | Dublin Core

Executive Summary

Arey Lagoon, located in eastern Arctic Alaska, supports a highly productive ecosystem, where soft substrate and coastal wet sedge fringing the shores are feeding grounds and nurseries for a variety of marine fish and waterfowl. The lagoon is partially protected from the direct onslaught of Arctic Ocean waves by a barrier island chain (Arey Island) which in itself provides important habitat for migratory shorebirds and waterfowl. In this work, numerically modeled waves and water levels are computed under the provision of sea-level rise and changing conditions brought about by 21st century climate variability. Model results, supported by observations, are used to assess the stability of the barrier chain and spatiotemporal changes in flood patterns across fringing coastal wet sedge areas. The results aim to support studies that investigate the possibility of new biological succession trajectories and loss or increase of habitat areas. 

Suggested Citation

Erikson, L.H., Gibbs, A.E., Richmond, B.M., Storlazzi, C.D., Jones, B.M., and Ohman, K.A., 2020, Changing storm conditions in response to projected 21st century climate change and the potential impact on an arctic barrier island–lagoon system—A pilot study for Arey Island and Lagoon, eastern Arctic Alaska: U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 2020–1142, 68, p., https://doi.org/10.3133/ofr20201142.

ISSN: 2331-1258 (online)

Study Area

Table of Contents

  • Acknowledgments
  • Executive Summary
  • Introduction
  • Clarification of Key Terms
  • Study Area
  • Data and Methods
  • Field Observations and Model Evaluation
  • Results
  • Summary of Findings and Conclusions
  • References Cited
  • Appendix 1. Documented historical and model hind-cast storm events in the vicinity of Arey Island and Lagoon
  • Appendix 2. Model Settings
  • Appendix 3. Field Data
Publication type Report
Publication Subtype USGS Numbered Series
Title Changing storm conditions in response to projected 21st century climate change and the potential impact on an arctic barrier island–lagoon system—A pilot study for Arey Island and Lagoon, eastern Arctic Alaska
Series title Open-File Report
Series number 2020-1142
DOI 10.3133/ofr20201142
Year Published 2020
Language English
Publisher U.S. Geological Survey
Publisher location Reston, VA
Contributing office(s) Alaska Science Center, Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center
Description Report: x, 68 p.; Data Release
Country United States
State Alaska
Other Geospatial Arey Island and Lagoon
Online Only (Y/N) Y
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