A homogeneous stochastic model for earthquake occurrences
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Abstract
The objective of this study is to develop a probabilistic model for earthquake occurrences with temporal and spatial memory. Stochastic processes are used to characterize both the spatial and temporal dependencies of seismic occurrences along a fault. Currently, only homogeneous space and time transitions are considered. The resulting process however is evolutionary and depends on the specific sequence of events over a period of time. The model provides estimates on the cumulative activity of a fault over a future time period. In addition, probabilities of occurrences of individual events along a geologic fault at some specified future time are obtained when a descritized time scale is used. The information from these evaluations is particularly useful in engineering seismic hazard computations and for social and engineering seismic risk assessments.
| Publication type | Report |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | USGS Numbered Series |
| Title | A homogeneous stochastic model for earthquake occurrences |
| Series title | Open-File Report |
| Series number | 80-1153 |
| DOI | 10.3133/ofr801153 |
| Year Published | 1980 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | U.S. Geological Survey |
| Description | v, 41 p. |
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