Future municipal water demand was estimated for the Bedford, Coffee, Marshall, and Maury-southern Williamson water-service areas in the upper Duck River watershed in central Tennessee through 2030. The Duck River, a primary source of municipal water, provided a total of 24.3 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) or 92 percent of the total water use in the study area during 2000. Municipal water use increased 46 percent from 1981 to 2000 (from 18.0 to 26.3 Mgal/d). Water demand for municipal use is expected to continue to increase through 2030 because of the recent intensive and anticipated growth in the residential and commercial sectors.
Constant-rate models were used to estimate future municipal water demand. Data on residential and nonresidential billing accounts and estimates of public use and losses were used to calibrate the models. Two watershed scenarios for each water-supply system that depends on the Duck River for supply were simulated. Scenario 1 considered monthly water demand during typical weather conditions as represented by monthly per account use during 2003 and a rate of growth in customer accounts from 1999 to 2003. Results showed that total municipal water use could increase about 104 percent to 51 Mgal/d by 2030, residential water use could increase about 140 percent to 24 Mgal/d, nonresidential water use could increase about 110 percent to 17 Mgal/d, and public use and losses could increase about 83 percent to 11 Mgal/d.
Scenario 2 considered monthly water demand during drought conditions as represented by monthly per account use during 2000 and recent growth in customer accounts from 1999 to 2003 or, for selected water-supply systems, an increasing rate of growth. Results showed that total municipal water use could increase about 120 percent to 55 Mgal/d, residential water use could increase about 160 percent to 26 Mgal/d, nonresidential water use could increase about 122 percent to 18 Mgal/d, and public use and losses could double and increase to 12 Mgal/d. For both scenarios the model assumed that the Duck River would supply all future surface-water needs in the study area, that ground-water resources would be sufficient to meet growing demands of the water-supply systems that depend on ground water, and that the amount of surface water sold to water-supply systems primarily dependent on ground water would remain the same through 2030.
Additional publication details
USGS Numbered Series
Estimated Use of Water in the Upper Duck River Watershed, Central Tennessee, and Water-Demand Projections through 2030