Methods for estimating drought streamflow probabilities for Virginia streams

Scientific Investigations Report 2014-5145
Prepared in cooperation with the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality.
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Abstract

Maximum likelihood logistic regression model equations used to estimate drought flow probabilities for Virginia streams are presented for 259 hydrologic basins in Virginia. Winter streamflows were used to estimate the likelihood of streamflows during the subsequent drought-prone summer months. The maximum likelihood logistic regression models identify probable streamflows from 5 to 8 months in advance. More than 5 million streamflow daily values collected over the period of record (January 1, 1900 through May 16, 2012) were compiled and analyzed over a minimum 10-year (maximum 112-year) period of record. The analysis yielded the 46,704 equations with statistically significant fit statistics and parameter ranges published in two tables in this report. These model equations produce summer month (July, August, and September) drought flow threshold probabilities as a function of streamflows during the previous winter months (November, December, January, and February). Example calculations are provided, demonstrating how to use the equations to estimate probable streamflows as much as 8 months in advance.

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Additional publication details

Publication type Report
Publication Subtype USGS Numbered Series
Title Methods for estimating drought streamflow probabilities for Virginia streams
Series title Scientific Investigations Report
Series number 2014-5145
DOI 10.3133/sir20145145
Year Published 2014
Language English
Publisher U.S. Geological Survey
Publisher location Reston, VA
Contributing office(s) Virginia Water Science Center
Description Report: vi, 20 p.; 2 Tables
Country United States
State Virginia
Online Only (Y/N) N
Additional Online Files (Y/N) N