The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards
Links
- Document: Report (55 MB pdf)
- Larger Work: This publication is Chapter A–H of The HayWired Earthquake Scenario
- Appendix: Chapter F appendix 2 (74 KB zip)
- Related Works:
- Scientific Investigations Report 2017-5013 Volume 2 – The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Engineering Implications
- Scientific Investigations Report 2017-5013 Volume 3 – The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Societal Consequences
- Fact Sheet 2018-3016 – The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—We Can Outsmart Disaster
- Fact Sheet 2021-3054 – The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Societal Consequences
- Data Releases:
- USGS data release – Liquefaction potential as a result of HayWired earthquake scenario mainshock (April 18, 2018) shaking in Alameda and Santa Clara Counties, San Francisco Bay area, California
- USGS data release – Point locations for earthquakes M2.5 and greater in a two-year aftershock sequence resulting from the HayWired scenario earthquake mainshock (4/18/2018) in the San Francisco Bay area, California
- USGS data release – Data from earthquake-induced landslide hazards for a M7.0 scenario earthquake on the Hayward Fault
- Version History: Version History (1 KB)
- Download citation as: RIS | Dublin Core
Abstract
The HayWired scenario is a hypothetical earthquake sequence that is being used to better understand hazards for the San Francisco Bay region during and after an earthquake of magnitude 7 on the Hayward Fault. The 2014 Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities calculated that there is a 33-percent likelihood of a large (magnitude 6.7 or greater) earthquake occurring on the Hayward Fault within three decades. A large Hayward Fault earthquake will produce strong ground shaking, permanent displacement of the Earth’s surface, landslides, liquefaction (soils becoming liquid-like during shaking), and subsequent fault slip, known as afterslip, and earthquakes, known as aftershocks.
The most recent large earthquake on the Hayward Fault occurred on October 21, 1868, and it ruptured the southern part of the fault. The 1868 magnitude-6.8 earthquake occurred when the San Francisco Bay region had far fewer people, buildings, and infrastructure (roads, communication lines, and utilities) than it does today, yet the strong ground shaking from the earthquake still caused significant building damage and loss of life. The next large Hayward Fault earthquake is anticipated to affect thousands of structures and disrupt the lives of millions of people. Earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region has been greatly reduced as a result of previous concerted efforts; for example, tens of billions of dollars of investment in strengthening infrastructure was motivated in large part by the 1989 magnitude 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake. To build on efforts to reduce earthquake risk in the San Francisco Bay region, the HayWired earthquake scenario comprehensively examines the earthquake hazards to help provide the crucial scientific information that the San Francisco Bay region can use to prepare for the next large earthquake, The HayWired Earthquake Scenario—Earthquake Hazards volume describes the strong ground shaking modeled in the scenario and the hazardous movements of the Earth’s surface that the fault rupture and shaking will activate.
Suggested Citation
Detweiler, S.T., and Wein, A.M., eds., 2017, The HayWired earthquake scenario—Earthquake hazards (ver. 1.2, December 2018): U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2017–5013–A–H, 126 p., https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20175013v1.
ISSN: 2328-0328 (online)
Study Area
| Publication type | Report |
|---|---|
| Publication Subtype | USGS Numbered Series |
| Title | The HayWired earthquake scenario—Earthquake hazards |
| Series title | Scientific Investigations Report |
| Series number | 2017-5013 |
| Chapter | A–H |
| DOI | 10.3133/sir20175013v1 |
| Edition | Version 1.0: April 2017; Version 1.1: March 2018; Version 1.2: December 2018 |
| Year Published | 2017 |
| Language | English |
| Publisher | U.S Geological Survey |
| Publisher location | Reston, VA |
| Contributing office(s) | Earthquake Science Center |
| Description | xii, 126 p. |
| Larger Work Type | Report |
| Larger Work Subtype | USGS Numbered Series |
| Larger Work Title | The HayWired earthquake scenario |
| Country | United States |
| State | California |
| Other Geospatial | Hayward Fault |
| Online Only (Y/N) | Y |
| Additional Online Files (Y/N) | Y |
| Google Analytic Metrics | Metrics page |